EU Morning Briefing: 22 October 2010

GOOD MORNING, Europe! I rather enjoyed yesterday’s briefing. It was short and to-the-point – but I quite liked using a more informal style. Okay, on with today’s briefing. Let’s start with Italy, where the parliamentary constitutional affairs committee has just approved the retroactive application of the so-called “Lodo Alfano” immunity law. Legal proceedings initiated prior to the date the President or Prime Minister entered office will be suspended until after their terms are completed. Essentially, this means Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is now immune from prosecution on corruption charges until he leaves office. Something of a victory for Signor Berlusconi, who once joked he entered politics to avoid being sent to prison.

In France, the Autumn of Discontent is on hold for a ten day half-term holiday (starting today), and it’s anticipated that many protesters will dutifully abandon picket-lines and head off on vacances. Quarrelling will continue, however, between the EU institutions. The Council is now threatening legal action against the Parliament and the Commission over allegedly “illegal” extra powers granted to MEPs in international negotiations. If a future historian ever wishes to characterise the EU in the years immediately following the adoption of the Lisbon treaty, it is a safe bet that they’ll summarise the period as one of bitter power-squabbles between the institutions (all of whom have their own interpretation as to the true meaning of the Treaty of Lisbon). See, if further proof is needed, the way Germany and France make deals on the side to water-down EU budgetary rules, prompting outrage from Britain because the rules risk infringing upon national sovereignty, and outrage from the European Central Bank because they don’t infringe nation sovereignty enough.

Finally, the Financial Times reports that the Eurozone recovery is running out of steam, and strong growth in the bigger economies is masking contractions elsewhere. Whilst the “core” Eurozone countries – i.e. Germany and France – are doing reasonably well, the so-called “peripheral” economies such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece are lagging behind. One economist told the FT that it’s “probably too early start fretting about a double-dip recession” – which is a bit like saying: “Whatever you do – don’t think of an elephant.”

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Eurogoblin’s Alternative UK Budget

THERE’S a spiffy new tool up on The Guardian‘s website that lets people play chancellor and choose which departmental budgets they want to cut. I think The Gruniad should get plenty of kudos for this sort of thing – it’s a novel way to present serious issues. Whilst many people accept cuts are necessary in a fluffy, abstract sort of way, it’s another thing entirely to have to go in and actually take an axe to the budget knowing that you could possibly be ballsing-up the entire (virtual) economy.

In the real world, the Government’s spending review was slightly less severe than many had feared (though that’s a bit like telling a chap who’s just had his hand mangled to look on the bright side because he’s still got a stump). Instead of the 25% cuts some predicted, departmental budgets are being cut by an average of 19% (which is actually less than Labour’s proposed 20% cuts – though the figures are greatly disputed). Of course, some are arguing that cuts shouldn’t be made until the economy is on stronger ground – whilst others, charmingly, argue we shouldn’t be making cuts at all.

Personally, this goblin is of the opinion that budget-cuts do indeed have to be made – not just in Britain but across Europe – and sooner rather than later to avoid another Greek-style crisis.  Much (though not all) of Europe is horribly uncompetitive, and  if we don’t get our house in order then interest-rates will spiral out of control on government borrowing and, before you know it, countries are defaulting willy-nilly. The question, of course, is then whether or not Osborne has made the right cuts. Well – Eurogoblin decided to play chancellor and fire up The Guardian‘s budget tool to find out.

First up, I’m off to the Department for Work and Pensions – a substantial pink square representing the biggest departmental budget by far. Let’s see what we’ve got… increase state pension age by a year to save £10 billion? I’ll have that. Sadly, it means I’ll be working longer than my parents’ generation to pay off their debts. Lovely. It’s an issue that has sparked off fierce protests in France, but it’s also unlikely to prove a political flashpoint in the UK.

Now, what’s next? It’s off to the Ministry of Defence, axe in hand! I’ll assume that the government is correct when it claims that buying both the planned new aircraft carriers is cheaper than scrapping one of them. Instead, I’ll axe two squadrons of new Typhoon fighters for a saving of £5.4 billion. I’ll make it up by concentrating on increased defence co-operation with the French – they can provide the planes and we’ll provide the ships. I’m not finished with the MoD, though – I’m going to scrap the existing Trident nuclear deterrent now (but keep working on the replacement) for a saving of £1.6 billion. It will mean a capability gap until the replacement comes online, but I don’t believe a nuclear deterrent fits the sort of threats Britain will be facing in the short term (I can’t say what the situation will be in ten years, however).

Finally, I trim all the other budgets by 10% – leaving the Northern Ireland budget and office alone (I fear the economy – along with the peace process – is too fragile there). I also assume that the NHS and the Department for International Development have both been ring-fenced by campaign promises. However, I do freeze the NHS pay increase scheduled this year until next year, saving £3 billion (though I suspect this rather temporary measure will be politically difficult).

How does Eurogoblin’s budget compare with Osborne’s? Well, the average departmental cuts under my budget are only 10%, compared with 19% in the real world. The MoD faired badly beneath my scissors – with Britain temporarily transformed into a non-nuclear power and with a question-mark over its ability to operate independently of French or American support. However, only two programs were ultimately cut – leaving the army, for example, the same size. The NHS pay freeze is my most dubious decision (made to fill up a £3 billion black hole in the budget) which will probably lead to industrial action and is only a temporary “sticky-tape” measure until next year. Let’s hope nobody notices.

Interestingly, I got a similar result with The Guardian‘s tool by cutting all budgets (except the NHS, Northern Ireland spending, Northern Ireland office and Department for International Development) by 10%. This would mean, I think, a larger cut for some departments (such as Defence), but – on average – much less severe cuts across the board.

Of course, this is all ridiculous. It’s a game – not a serious spending review. The entire model is flawed – for one thing, payments to the EU are not represented (by offering the option to cut “subscriptions” to the UN and EU at only £0.18 billion, it suggests the EU is much cheaper than it in fact is). A person couldn’t possibly work out a better way to balance the budget just by playing this game. However, where it can help us is by forcing us to think about these issues and to consider which areas of public spending are most important to us and why.

So, that’s Eurogoblin’s alternative UK budget. Whilst I’m playing chancellor, why don’t you lot play parliament? Being a generous sort of chap, I’ll give you a vote on the budget, and we’ll see if I can’t sneak it through the House of Commons.

How do you vote on Eurogoblin's Budget?

  • For (64%, 29 Votes)
  • Against (36%, 16 Votes)

Total Voters: 45

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EU Morning Brief: 21 October 2010

GOOD MORNING, Europe! I’m going to continue experimenting with the format of the morning briefing to make it easier to write and (hopefully) more interesting to read. Rather than bullet-point summaries, today’s brief will thus take a more standard format. Okay – on with the briefing!

Today, the big news comes from the European Parliament’s latest Strasbourg session. The Daily Telegraph reports that MEPs have voted both to increase the EU budget by 6% and in favour of controversial new legislation on paid maternity leave. Personally, I don’t think the EP should be legislating on maternity leave. It’s especially bad timing in Britain, as the government has just announced swinging cuts across the board. Regardless, I think this is a decision for national parliaments and I hope the Council overturns this vote (which they may well do). Also out of Strasbourg is news that the European diplomatic corps has essentially cleared its last legal hurdle by a fairly healthy margin.

In other news, there’s been a major cabinet reshuffle in Spain – including the cutting of two smaller ministries, apparently as part of cost-cutting efforts. Also, EurActiv reminds us that Franco-German plans to amend the treaties and introduce stricter budget rules may well require another Irish referendum, as well as a British one. Finally, the EU’s freemason summit was “very odd.”

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EU Morning Briefing: 20 October 2010

GOOD MORNING, Europe! It’s going to be a mini-briefing today, I’m afraid.

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EU Morning Briefing: 19 October 2010

GOOD MORNING, Europe! You’ve probably already had your coffee, so let’s get on with the briefing:

  • The British Government’s Strategic Defence and Security Review has been revealed. Of the many apparent absurdities on display, the most glaring might be the fact that one of two new aircraft carriers being built for the Royal Navy will never carry any planes and will be in service for only 3 years before being mothballed and possibly sold. Expect increased Anglo-French co-operation on defence over the next decade, with France providing the planes and Britain the carriers.
  • Big news! Charlemagne is reporting that the Germans have “changed camps” and are now siding with France on the issue of EU sanctions against excessive member-state debt. In return for watering down the proposals to make them next to useless (what good is fining a country at risk of default?) Germany have secured French backing for their ultimate goal of treaty-revision. What does this mean given that there’s now a “referendum lock” in the UK? Eurosceptics should note, by the way, that the UK has an opt-out from the new sanctions regime. There’s a good write-up on the Ecofin meeting from EU Business (including fresh attempts to get an EU tax on the agenda).
  • The Economist argues that this will be a “crucial week in determining the fate of the pension reform” in France – with fuel shortages possibly being a deciding factor. This week the pension bill will go before the French Senate, but even after that The Economist warns strikes might continue. Protests yesterday turned ugly, with riots breaking out and petrol bombs thrown at gendarmes, who responded with tear gas. These are not just anti-pension protests – the level of fury is too high. These have now become anti-government and, indeed, anti-Sarkozy protests.
  • The political crisis in Belgium is set to deepen… again. Francophone and Flemish factions have found themselves unable to come to agreement, especially over the contentious issue of devolution of powers – which Francophone parties worry might lead to the country breaking up completely. Not that there’s much of a country to break-up at the moment. Still, new elections are now increasingly likely – something which will no doubt merely prolong the crisis even further.
  • Fresh criticism from Turkey’s President at the slowness of his country’s EU accession negotiations. This comes as Turkey seems to be moving slowly away from the Western sphere of influence, threatening to block a planned NATO missile shield. Meanwhile, the Cyprus Mail reports that life could be about to get more difficult in Northern Cyprus, as Turkey is planning to sell of its assets there – potentially putting thousands of jobs at risk.
  • In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is distancing himself from planned far-right English Defence League (EDL) demonstrations planned in Amsterdam in his honour. Police fear the demonstrations could turn violent, and Wilders is quoted as saying “This demonstration means nothing to me. It is nothing to do with me, nor is the EDL.” I can only conclude that the man is a coward. He whips the crowd up into a frenzy, then denies responsibility for his actions when it comes to crunch-time.
  • In Finland, up to 18’000 people have resigned their membership of the Finnish Evangelical-Lutheran Church (the largest denomination in Finland) in protest at two Church representatives’ perceived discrimination against homosexuals during a television debate last week. Personally, I hope this wakes the church up to public opinion in Finland, rather than entrenching existing opinions by effectively “purifying” the church of dissenting voices.
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Euroblog Agenda: 18-24 October 2010

MONDAY

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are all chumming it up today in the French seaside resort of Deauville to discuss a “pan-European security partnership.” Little of substance is expected, but the summit signals an attempt to deepen co-operation between the EU states and Russia (but see Edward Lucas’ thoughts on the difficulty of securing Russian co-operation).

TUESDAY

  • Eye-watering defence cuts are expected to be announced today as the British government reveals the results of its  long-awaited “Strategic Defence and Security Review.” Expect this to be a big deal.
  • UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon will be in the European Parliament today. The man seemingly operates by stealth, and must be the most low-profile UN Secretary General in my lifetime. Will anyone be paying attention?

WEDNESDAY

  • As if yesterday’s defence review wasn’t enough, Wednesday will see the British government announce its public spending review. The review comes at a time when the EU is deep in budget negotiations that could herald an increase in the amount the UK pays to the EU. Value for money? I think so. Bad PR? Definitely.

THURSDAY

  • The 2012 and 2013 European Green Capitals will be named in Stockholm on Thursday. In the running are Barcelona, Malmö, Nantes, Nuremberg, Reykjavik and Vitoria-Gasteiz. This whilst Europe is on-track to reach its Kyoto targets on CO2, but likely only because it’s exporting its emissions to China.
  • Up, up and away! The European Space Agency is hosting a conference on European space exploration today in Brussels. The budding Euronaughts will try not to let new research (PDF) by the eurosceptic think-tank Open Europe dampen their enthusiasm. Open Europe’s report claims that the mounting costs of the Galileo satellite network have now left the stratosphere.

FRIDAY

  • G20 finance ministers will be meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, to warm-up for the real thing in November: the G20 summit in Seoul.
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Euroblog Round-Up: PdF Europe 2010

CC / Flickr - BY 2.0 - Jon Worth

THIS WEEK, the euroblogs have been buzzing about  the Personal Democracy Forum Europe 2010, held (like last year) in sunny Barcelona. So, what have the reactions been? Well – broadly positive. Public Affairs 2.0 thought this year’s PdF was more about “big ideas” than last year; Writing for (y)EU presents a truly bizarre graph showing levels of “arousal” and “dominance” during one of the PdF presentations; Bente Kalsnes would like to see more women and more discussion between the speakers next year; Curious Catherine provides an excellent round-up outlining the major themes of the event; OpenCongress has a video from a panel with a couple of Bloggingportal editors and SpinTank offers us five things to take away from PdF Europe (including Spanish ham!).

In other news: Mathew Lowry has provoked an interesting discussion on his blog by criticising the idea the media is solely to blame for bad EU coverage; the European Citizen is wondering what we should do with extremists (give them some cocoa and a hug and tell them it’ll be alright?); and we welcome a couple of new eurobloggers to the party in the form of yEUr Blogeress and Grumpy Old European.

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Europe, meet Islam; Islam, meet Europe

I’VE BEEN getting into a couple of debates in the comments over the nature of Islam. Now, I’m certainly no expert on Islam, but I know enough about the history of Europe to understand what an important impact it’s had. As many scholars have argued (including Jacques Le Goff in “The Birth of Europe”) Europe has, in several ways, been defined by Islam – defined against an “other” with which it has alternately (and, indeed, often simultaneously) warred and traded. In fact, the ways in which Islam has defined Europe extend to geography; without the Arab Conquests, “Europe” might very well have included North Africa and the Levant. Le Goff even goes so far as to argue that the loss of Jerusalem actually helped to construct a single “European” identity because:

“[It removed] the idea that Jerusalem was the capital of Christendom. In this respect at least, the failure of the Crusades proved very favorable to European unity. It set the seal on the identification between Europe and Christendom for many years to come .”

Likewise, the fall of Constantinople in 1453:

“[Released] European unity from a handicap. For although the Greek Orthodox religion is still observed in eastern Europe today, it is no longer linked to the double center of political and religious power that the Byzantine Empire used to constitute. In 1453 a potential obstacle to a future united Europe was, paradoxically enough, removed. ”

I think I’m justified, therefore, in adding a section to the end of my reading list about “Europe and Islam.” It’s quite a weighty section – and I might cut certain books if I don’t find them useful – but I think it’s a decent mix of critical (some arguably xenophobic) and supportive (though it could perhaps do with a few more non-Western scholars).

One item I haven’t put on the list (due to its brevity) is a 30-page pamphlet (PDF) published by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. The pamphlet is entitled “Europe and Islam” and is the text of a speech delivered by Professor Bernard Lewis to the institute. Lewis is one of the leading Western scholars on the Middle East – though he is also, from what I can tell, somewhat controversial due to his fierce criticism of political Islam. Regardless, his speech is worth reading (even if you don’t agree with all of it). His basic argument is that Muslims (he largely restricts himself to talking about the Middle East) have a much stronger conception of history than most in the West. This part of the world has also just left (i.e. post-Cold War) a long phase of its history which was defined by colonialism, and Lewis argues that many Muslims are “having some difficulty in adjusting to this new situation, in taking responsibility for their own actions and their consequences” (which is a slightly patronising argument – but I’ll accept that colonialism played havoc with the Middle East).

Finally, Lewis argues that the remarkable tolerance shown to non-Muslims living in Muslims lands up until the 20th Century (which is not to say there weren’t problems – just that there was a marked contrast with the treatment of Muslims in Christian lands) is, in fact, something of a double-edged sword. Lewis argues that Muslims now expect the same type of freedom they once offered non-Muslims (i.e. their own courts and laws and the freedom to manage their own affairs within their communities). An interesting argument, but not one which squares with my own experience growing up and studying with European Muslims. Honestly, most of the Muslims I grew up with were more interested in football than sharia law.

Still – I’ll have to try and educate myself further on this controversial issue before I can properly wade into it. I hope you’ll join me.

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The Great Redemption: Could Europe Learn to Love the Bush?

CC / Flickr - BY 2.0 - Todd Benson

EUROPE FIRST entered its love affair with Barack Obama in the 2008 democratic primaries. Today, despite a slight post-honeymoon cooling in levels of devotion, the hopeful one is still enormously popular in Europe – much more so, in fact, than he is stateside. Last month, his approval rating amongst American voters was only 52%, yet an enormous 78% of Europeans still rated him. By contrast, Europeans absolutely loathed his predecessor – George W. Bush – as a bellicose, anti-intellectual menace.

Yet, I’m starting to wonder if the next decade might see a rehabilitation of good ole’ “Dubyah.” I don’t just mean that Europeans miss a “villain in the whitehouse” (there is, despite an obvious affection for Barrack, enough disagreement for European righteousness to linger). I mean that Europe’s shift to the right – especially as far-right parties enter the mainstream – might give impetus to a resurrection of Bush the Younger’s legacy. Will the rise of more aggressive anti-immigration sentiments across Europe lead to a recasting of the misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan? As Europe’s economy stagnates and her opinions harden, will the call to spread “freedom” and “democracy” around the world sound less hackneyed in the ears of the old continent? Will the secret prisons, extra-judicial phone-tapping, CIA torture and targeted assassinations seem more palatable?

Tony Blair and George Bush have long been confident that history will judge their actions in more positive a light than contemporaries. They might be less enthusiastic if the reason for redemption was a swelling of anti-Islamic hatred.

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EU Morning Briefing: 15 October 2010

GOOD MORNING, Europe! I don’t care if you’ve already had your coffee this morning – time to get another. I’ll wait… got it? Good. On with today’s briefing:

  • As expected, Hillary Clinton has criticised European (and especially British) defence cuts at the NATO summit in Lisbon. The Telegraph quotes a senior military source as saying “The PM should be aware that the cuts the Treasury is looking for are ridiculous” – leading, as they might, to such spectacles as the new British aircraft carriers entering service in 2016 without any aircraft aboard them. Now, critics of the EU often hold up NATO as an example of a successful alliance that doesn’t threaten sovereignty… yet I’m perplexed by US proposals to scrap unanimity voting. Will they also need a permanent NATO Court of Justice to sort out disputes? What about sanctions (such as removing voting rights) for those countries that fail to spend the benchmark of 2% of GDP on defence? Hmm? What was that about sovereignty?
  • In Spain, El Pais is reporting (PDF – 15 Oct 2010) that the Basque National Party (PNV) has agreed to enter a parliamentary coalition with the ruling Socialists. In exchange, there will be a transfer of powers from Madrid to the Basque region, which will now be able to set policies in areas such as banking and the credit and insurance sector.
  • Germany’s economic boom continues, as think-tanks predict the country is now on course for the strongest growth in a decade.
  • GM crops are proving to be a massive headache for the EU. The first Citizens’ Initiative (a new “direct democracy” mechanism enabled by the Lisbon treaty – but in essence a fairly weak petition system) calls for GM to be banned in Europe. Yet, at the same time, certain states (such as the Netherlands) strongly support GM crops and a ban risks breaking WTO rules. Officials warn that if GMs are permitted on a state-by-state basis, it would “mean de facto that we do not have a single market.”
  • Member-states and the European Parliament are bickering over whether or not MEPs should be involved in international negotiations on the EU’s behalf. I particularly liked the part where one MEP gave EU Observer a quote “over the phone from Madeira.” How does this chap expect us to take him seriously whilst he plays rent-a-quote from a poolside deckchair in a 5-star resort?
  • The International Herald Tribune is carrying a brilliant report into the “closed professions” holding back the Greek economy. Having lived in Italy – which has something similar – I can vouch for the insanity of a system in which one pays about ten times the UK price for painkillers.
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