New Job at BlogActiv

Posted on November 24, 2010 by Eurogoblin

More info at my new BlogActiv blog here.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Still Alive!

Posted on November 12, 2010 by Eurogoblin

DESPITE appearances, this goblin is still hard at work behind the scenes. I’ve been coordinating the Bloggingportal event in London and interviewing for jobs. Hopefully, I’ll have more time for blogging soon. Stay tuned!

Posted in Online Politics | 2 Comments

Taking a Break from Blogging

Posted on October 30, 2010 by Eurogoblin

EUROGOBLIN is taking a break from blogging for a while. In amidst my personal life (yes, I do have one!) and job-hunting (it is, after all, an “age of austerity”) – I’m going to have to suspend the blog. I’ll start writing again when I can.

Posted in Online Politics | 4 Comments

It’s High Noon at Today’s European Council

Posted on October 28, 2010 by Eurogoblin

CC / Flickr - BY-NC-ND 2.0 - Number 10

TODAY’S MEETING of European leaders in Brussels is going to be a bumpy one. Last month, French President Nicolas Sarkozy had a “violent” row with Commission President José Manuel Barroso – an encounter that no-doubt soured relations between France and the Commission (indeed, tempers have recently threatened to flare up again). The controversial issue of treaty reform is not officially on the agenda (PDF), but this will most certainly be the biggest battle of the day. There is, however, also the contentious issue of a rise in the EU’s budget to be discussed.

Van Rompuy will present the findings of his taskforce on EU economic governance (which – as I wrote about earlier – are more subtle than widely reported). It’s not entirely true to say that the recommendations have been “watered-down” by Franco-German interference. Yes, the “corrective” part of the new rules will be “semi-automatic” (i.e. sanctions will apply unless overturned by qualified majority in the Council), but the earlier – and, arguably, more important – “preventative”  part of the pact will still be automatic (and sanctions can be applied in as little as three months for the most serious cases).

As for treaty reform, various options are on the table. Cameron will probably be able to avoid calling a referendum in Britain because the UK has an opt-out from the sanctions regime. However, Ireland will be under great pressure to put any changes to the public first. Therefore, some are suggesting reform could be sneaked into the treaties via technical obfuscation (so-called “treaty change-lite”). This would avoid the need for referenda, but might also force Germany to abandon some of her more extreme demands (such as the suspension of voting rights for those states that break the rules).

The second storm-front (also not officially on the agenda) involves next year’s proposed EU budget hike of 6%. David Cameron has vowed to “freeze or cut” the budget, but he needs the support of a majority of the Council to make this happen. The Financial Times is predicting failure for Mr. Cameron – with a possible compromise solution of a 2.9% budget increase. The BBC’s Gavin Hewitt thinks this could even be negotiated down to “just over 2%” – which might satisfy Cameron (but probably not the Tory’s growing eurosceptic wing).

There are suggestions that Cameron might use UK support for treaty reform as a bargaining chip to achieve his objectives on the budget. Personally, I agree with the FT – Cameron will be unable to “freeze or cut” the budget, but might be able to settle with a halving of the proposed budget increase (not an insignificant achievement). This wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the story, however, as a joint-text would then need to be decided with the Parliament and – ultimately – a higher figure than the one proposed by the Council might have to be negotiated.

As for German plans for treaty change – the most likely outcome is that Van Rompuy will be asked to form another taskforce and come back next year with a proposal that satisfies some of Merkel’s demands but that doesn’t require national referenda to implement. Nobody will be entirely satisfied, but that’s what EU politics is all about: compromise, compromise, compromise.

Posted in EU Morning Briefing | Tagged , | 7 Comments

The Return of the Privateers!

Posted on October 27, 2010 by Eurogoblin

CC / Flickr - BY-NC-ND 2.0 - "Joz" Jimenez

THE BRITISH government is investigating the possibility of hiring a private fleet of armed speedboats to deal with piracy in the Gulf of Aden. The proposal, which is strongly condemned by German shippers (who argue it falls outside the bounds of international maritime law), is in many ways a throwback to the practice of commissioning “privateers.” Whereas the targets of privateers in the Age of Sail were the vessels of other European powers, these 20th Century privateers will be playing at pirate hunter.

The practice of outsourcing military contracts to private mercenaries has seen something of a renaissance in recent years (especially in Iraq, where Private Military Contractors are routinely employed). However, outsourcing government spending is not always cheaper than keeping it in-house.

Another idea being floated from the pages of pirate-hunting history is the convoy system – a method employed by the Spanish in the 16th Century to protect their treasure fleets of looted Aztec gold from the ravages of British privateers.

Yaaarh.

Posted in EU Morning Briefing | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Greece is the Most Corrupt Country in the EU

Posted on October 26, 2010 by Eurogoblin

TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL has just published its annual Corruption Perceptions Index. Last year, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania were tied as the joint-71st most corrupt countries in the world (and the most corrupt countries in the EU). This year, however, Greece has sunk down to 78th place, whilst Bulgaria and Romania have risen to 73rd and 69th place respectively.

Turkey, a controversial prospective member-state, is less corrupt (at 56th place) than Latvia, Slovakia, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria and, of course, Greece (all members of the EU). The least corrupt country in the world is Denmark (taking over from New Zealand which was last year’s number one). In general, the Nordic countries dominate the top of the league.  The bottom of the league is populated by the usual suspects: Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Burma. Russia is near the bottom of the table, amongst the most corrupt countries in the world.

It’s important to note that the index is based on perceptions of public sector corruption. This is understandable, as measuring actual corruption would be nearly impossible. Kenya (154th place) – the country I’m currently living in – is not necessarily much more corrupt than Tanzania (116th place), but whilst graft scandals are in the papers every day here in Kenya, the Tanzanian public discourse is much less focused on corruption.

Posted in Greece | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The Europe of Today: Corruption, Austerity & Hatred

Posted on October 26, 2010 by Eurogoblin

THE NEWS today is dominated by talk of corruption, of austerity and of hatred. Transparency International is due (i.e. in the next 30 minutes) to release its annual report on corruption perceptions around the world. Expect a post from this goblin on the subject – but I’d urge you all to take the time to read through the report. I’m particularly interested in corruption in Greece – which was considered one of the most corrupt countries in the EU last year – and which is undergoing a fierce austerity drive at the moment.

Speaking of austerity, in France the Senate will vote today for the controversial pension reform bill, followed by a vote in the National Assembly tomorrow. If the bill manages to pass both houses (which seems likely), it will become law by the middle of November. The strikes which have gripped France for the past few weeks have cost the economy 3 billion euros so far, and threaten to derail the recovery.

In Latvia, negotiations over the new austerity budget are also threatening to derail as the nationalist “For Fatherland and Freedom – All for Latvia!” alliance (those controversial allies of David Cameron’s in the European Parliament) drops out of coalition government talks, leaving the next government with only a slim majority. In the Czech Republic, the Social Democrat opposition are threatening to veto the austerity budget after winning seats in the Senate (though the government has enough seats in the lower house to overturn a Senate veto). Meanwhile, fierce budget talks are ongoing in Portugal (where a crucial vote in parliament was recently postponed until 3 November). The budget will probably pass, but if it fails then we could be facing another Greek-style crisis.

Perversely, even good news is bad news today. The Daily Telegraph is carrying the story that the German economic boom is forcing the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy before the sluggish Southern states are ready for it. Meanwhile, European leaders are gearing up for a fight at the European Council on Thursday over Franco-German plans to reopen the Treaty of Lisbon. All this while the world swings toward protectionism, with the EU urging its trade partners not to raise restrictive barriers.

Austerity is causing bad blood. There’s a growing sense of intolerance toward foreigners, and the debate over immigration is heating up. The Economist‘s Eastern Approaches blog has a fantastic piece about the growing conflict between Poland and Lithuania (two countries once joined together in political union). Meanwhile, Europe’s far-right “lite” parties have been meeting in Vienna and are planning to use the European Citizens’ Initiative to call for a referendum on Turkish membership of the EU, whilst the EU has dispatched an armed Rapid Intervention Border Team to the Greek-Turkish border to try and cut down on illegal immigration.

So, that’s the flavour of Europe today. Corruption, austerity and hatred.

Posted in EU Morning Briefing | 1 Comment

European Council: Will Cameron go in Handbag Swinging?

Posted on October 25, 2010 by Eurogoblin

CC / Flickr - BY-NC-ND 2.0 - Number 10

LAST WEEK was a grim week in EU politics. Will the week ahead be any brighter? Nope, probably not. Grim is apparently the order of the day in our age of austerity. Still, there are one or two faint points of light cutting their way through the gloom this week.

Tomorrow, for example, Transparency International will release its annual Corruption Perceptions Index. It’s important to note that the index only ranks countries by “perceived” levels of corruption – actual levels of corruption are, obviously, almost impossible to catalogue. However, take a good look at the report when it’s released tomorrow and pay particular attention to whether or not Greece, Bulgaria and Romania have been making progress since they were labelled the most corrupt countries in the EU.

On Thursday, EU leaders will attend a two-day European Council summit in Brussels. They will discuss the final report of Council President Van Rompuy’s taskforce on EU economic governance (which I blogged about in my previous post). Also on the agenda will be attempts to forge a common EU position for a series of upcoming international summits in November: the G20 Summit in Seoul, the EU-US summit in Lisbon and the UN Conference on climate change in Cancun. After the humiliation of Copenhagen, the Cancun conference will be a good opportunity for the EU to prove it’s still a force to be reckoned with (the EU is reportedly now interested in prolonging the Kyoto protocol past 2012). To be honest, if the EU can avoid being shut out of negotiations like last time then that will be something of a foreign-policy coup.

Finally, this week’s European Council meeting is also, of course, an opportunity for British Prime Minister David Cameron to block the budget hike. Cameron has described the EU’s 6% budget increase as “outrageous” and said “It is completely irresponsible and unacceptable. We need an alliance to block increases.” However, he’ll have an uphill struggle. If he’s able to convince enough members of the European Council to vote against the budget, then a conciliation committee will be formed to agree a joint text within twenty-one days. If the Council is dead-set against a budget-increase, then it will refuse to come to a compromise on the joint text. Potentially, if the Council kept blocking the budget this way the EU would be forced to adopt the same budget as last year. The important thing to note, however, is that Cameron needs the support of other EU leaders to block the budget. It’s decidedly unclear whether or not Cameron will be able to muster the support he needs.

Posted in Euroblog Agenda | Leave a comment

Proposed EU Deficit Rules More Subtle Than Widely Reported

Posted on October 22, 2010 by Eurogoblin

THE FINAL DRAFT report from Van Rompuy’s taskforce on stricter EU deficit rules was made public recently (PDF). If you don’t have time to read the whole report, I’d recommend glancing over this short fact-sheet (PDF) for an idea of the changes. Firstly, there is scope to reduce the deadline for imposing sanctions from 6 months down to 4 months in “serious cases.” In addition, if the Council chooses to issue its recommendation sooner than the one month deadline, sanctions could be applied even sooner. Many media sources are reporting that the proposals are “watered-down” because sanctions will be applied only after a 6 month deadline – when, in fact, they could be levied after a little over 3 months in the most serious of cases.

That’s the “preventative” part of the pact. The “corrective” part of the pact is, despite what’s being reported, potentially much stricter. Currently, there is a deadline of 6 months for a member-state to take effective action in curbing their deficit. Under the proposed rules, sanctions could be applied immediately in serious circumstances. The 6 month deadline can also be accelerated to 3 months “when warranted by the situation.” There’s a lot of leeway involved, and decisions are taken by normal qualified majority (i.e. they are not “semi-automatic”) – but the proposals are not completely empty.

Still, what exactly do these “sanctions” entail? Well, the taskforce has addressed the problem of fining a country in economic difficulties (which is a bit like pushing a drowning man further underwater). Their solution is that the initial sanctions should actually take the form of “deposits” which the country pays and, if it tackles its deficit properly, it would get the money back. Even better, the “preventative” deposits are actually interest-accruing, so a country would get back more money that it paid in (which would ease some of the pain of austerity). If the country continues to break the Stability and Growth Pact, the interest is removed. Then, if nothing improves, real fines are levied – growing larger and larger unless the member-state takes firm steps to address its deficit.

It’s a complicated, subtle series of proposals – not all of which will necessarily be effective – but only half the truth about the taskforce report is apparently making it into the media. Finally, lest we forget – none of the above applies to the UK, which has (typically) secured an opt-out from the sanctions regime.

Posted in EU Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Is the UK Really Making Spending Cuts?

Posted on October 22, 2010 by Eurogoblin

Yes. To clear up any doubt, yes – the UK is really making cuts. Richard North is on a bit of a kick at the moment claiming that the cuts are illusory and that the British government is, in fact, only cutting the increase of the rate of public expenditure. I’ve covered this before. The important point is that as a percentage of GDP public expenditure is falling. One can’t really examine economic variables like this in isolation.

The value of money (and hence the value of cuts) is always measured in relation to other factors. To really understand the cuts, we’d have to look not just at GDP, but also inflation forecasts, predicted population growth (the scale of services needs to rise or fall relative to population for delivery to remain constant), we’d have to somehow factor in exchange rates, etc. It would be a horrifically complex task. A rough estimate, however, can be taken by looking at GDP forecasts. So, yes… the cuts are real.

UPDATE: Should have mentioned that spending as a percentage of GDP is predicted to rise in the short term before falling again. But see The Economist on the effects of inflation:

“In cash terms, total spending will be 6% higher in 2014-15 than this year. But that does not take inflation into account: in real terms it will be 3% lower.”

Posted in UK | Tagged , , | Leave a comment